Rome, Italy, Dec 15, 2020 / 04:00 am (CNA).- Italy’s national statistics institute is predicting that the country will see a significant decline in births in the years immediately following the coronavirus pandemic.
In a July report, Istat said that the climate of uncertainty and fear caused by the coronavirus may result in 10,000 fewer births in Italy in 2020 and 2021. It also predicted that if unemployment rises as expected, the birth rate could drop even further.
In 2019, births in Italy already hit a historic low since Italian unification in 1861. Across Europe, countries are facing what has been dubbed a “demographic winter.”
Pope Francis has described this as the dramatic result of a “disregard for families.” Europe’s devastatingly low birth rate “is a sign of societies that struggle to face the challenges of the present, and thus become ever more fearful of the future, with the result that they close in on themselves,” the pope said in 2018.
That year, Italy’s birth rate was 1.29 children per woman — just ahead of Malta and Spain’s rates of 1.23 and 1.26 respectively for the lowest rate in Europe.
What has caused the 50 years of steady decline in births across Europe, and especially in Italy, and is there any hope of reversing the trend?
The faith factor
According to Philip Jenkins, a historian and professor at Baylor University, it is impossible to isolate with precision one or more causes of a country’s birth rate, but there are some qualities that low fertility societies tend to have in common.
Setting causation to one side, he said, “if you look at countries around the world, low fertility societies are low faith; high fertility societies are high faith, regardless of the particular faith.”
“That could mean that A is causing B, B is causing A, or they are both caused by something else. But whatever way you go, the two seem to be very closely linked,” he told CNA.
Jenkins researched the topic of religion and demographics in his 2020 book “Fertility and Faith: The Demographic Revolution and the Transformation of World Religions.”
He said that the research showed that, with few exceptions, as religious practice in the West declined in the latter half of the 20th century, so did the number of births.
The reason that the correlation cannot be narrowed to a cause is that societal and cultural changes “are happening so fast” in that period, Jenkins said. “It’s very hard to figure out what’s influencing what.”
Italy is a great example, he explained. In the early 1970s, Italy was still a high faith, high fertility society. But by the middle of that decade, the culture started to shift, and by the early 1980s the changes really took off.
These changes can be measured in different ways, Jenkins said, such as by fertility rate, church attendance, or religious identity.
Despite Italy’s strong cultural Catholicism, the practice of the faith has been waning for some time.
Jenkins pointed out that in the mid-1970s to early 1980s, a number of political referendums were introduced in Italy which showed a willingness to go against Church teaching. Traditionally Catholic countries, like Italy and Spain, legalized divorce, abortion, and contraception despite Church opposition.
At the end of the 20th century, major societal changes continued, including the acceptance of other policies opposed by the Church, such as assisted suicide and gay marriage, Jenkins noted.
Family crisis
One Italian demographer ties Italy’s low fertility to a crisis of the Italian family, beginning with the legalization of divorce and the breakdown in religious marriage that followed.
In the year 1970, 97.7 out of 100 Italians married in the Catholic Church. But since the introduction of legal divorce in 1974, not only did the number of marriages in the Church dramatically decline but so did marriage overall.
National statistics show that in 2018 just under half of marriages in Italy took place in the Church. The rise in civil marriage is partly attributed to the increase in second and subsequent marriages, which are overwhelmingly contracted outside of the Church as they usually follow divorce.
Aside from an increase in premarital cohabitation, the number of free unions quadrupled in Italy between 1997 and 2017. Nearly one in three children was born to unwed parents in 2017.
“Divorce weakened the understanding of marriage, especially the religious understanding of marriage, which dominated in Italy until that time,” demographer Roberto Volpi argued.
He added that with legal divorce, the assurance that marriage provided — a “guarantee that it was forever” — lost its strength.
“Indisputably, the central point, however, is this: in Italy, a profound crisis of the family began when the idea of marriage, the centrality of marriage, crumbled. And undeniably divorce contributed to this,” Volpi said.
He suggested that, because couples usually decide to have children within the stable relationship of marriage, if there are fewer (and later) marriages, there will be fewer children.
Jenkins, instead, said he believed that the issue was too complicated to boil down to this single cause, even if the correlation exists. The same cultural changes which influenced Italy to legalize divorce and to value marriage less could also be behind the declining birth rate.
He pointed out that, for example, other European countries legalized divorce before Italy. Yet the decline in births in those countries started around the same time as in Italy.
Referring back to the correlation between religious practice and fertility, the professor noted that it could be that as a society loses its religious belief and practice, it also chooses to have fewer children. But it could just as easily be that as a society has fewer children, it loses “the glue which binds families to religion.”
“When you take children out of the picture, the links binding people to churches or to institutions decay quite rapidly,” he said.
As the connection to the faith declines, people also become more willing to vote in favor of issues opposed by the Church, such as contraception and abortion, he observed.
“So maybe fertility drives the faith decline. You could also argue that a decline in institutional religion makes people less prone to follow traditional ideas of what children are for, having lots of children to carry on the faith and so on.”
Do pro-family policies work?
In Europe, some countries are trying to address the low fertility problem by introducing policies offering financial incentives for women to marry younger and families to have more children.
Hungary is one country leading the way in these kinds of policies, and it has had minimal success: its national statistics office estimates it has raised its number of births per woman from 1.23 in 2011 to 1.48.
Jenkins agreed that pro-birth policies can work at raising fertility rates, but he said they work very slowly and are very expensive. In the past, oppressive policies under dictatorships have shown the most impact, he explained. But in a democracy, the incentives to have children are financial and it is “phenomenally expensive to promote any significant change in the birth rate.”
Italy has introduced some less aggressive policies, such as a “baby bonus” and subsidized parental leave, but one family policy expert said the truth is that they have not had much success in increasing births.
Vincenzo Bassi is a professor of law, economy, and political science in Rome. He is also the president of the Federation of Catholic Family Associations in Europe (FAFCE), an umbrella organization that gives support to Catholic families and promotes discussion of family policy issues within European institutions and local governments.
FAFCE tries to show policymakers “that the family is crucial for economic development,” Bassi said. “Also demographic policies must be regarded as an investment because without children, without future workers, we cannot maintain the generational balance which is essential for the future, the economic future of Europe, of my country, and of the whole world.”
Pro-family policies are only minimally effective, he said, because “if you don’t have any vision, a vision pertaining to the role of the family in society, of course, these policies are just social policies, welfare state policies, emergency policies, but they don’t have any real impact on the birth rate.”
“If you don’t realize the function and the role of the family in society, all of these policies are something OK, they can be useful,” he continued, “but I don’t decide to have more children because I’ll have a [financial] bonus.”
Having children requires a lot of sacrifices, Bassi noted. If we want to encourage people to take on that sacrifice, the family needs to be valued by society at large, he said: “I have to be happy, I have to feel important, having a family.”
A very different world
In Bassi’s opinion, where Italy should go from here is a complex question, but the family needs to have a greater role in both society and Catholic parishes and communities.
FAFCE promotes the formation of associations of families in parishes, as a means of providing mutual support and friendship.
“We need the generative power of the family not only within the family but also outside,” he said. In a time when people no longer have the support of living close to extended family, “the first community is the parish.”
“If we will start [making] this change also in the Church, we can hope that we can export the model outside the Church,” he said.
As demographics continue to shift over the coming years, religious groups have to figure out “how to deal with a different demographic profile, of a society with a lot of lone adult singles of all ages,” as well as a “very sharp increase” of old and super-old people, Jenkins said.
Religions have to recognize “the very different social and demographic world” they are operating in. “For many years, consciously or otherwise, churches, especially in the United States, have presumed that the normal population they are serving is based on families, nuclear families,” but this just is not the case anymore, he said.
The Italian demographer Volpi was not optimistic about stopping or reversing the fertility trend, but he said that the Catholic Church should encourage reflection on how to exit the crises of marriage and the family.
“Because if you don’t overcome the crisis of marriage, you don’t overcome the crisis of the family, that is the discussion a bit,” he said. “And you don’t recover from the crisis of fertility either.”
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I am happy to see that some bishops are finally starting to confront the lockdown mentality simply by refusing to cooperate. I pray that this trend will continue.
BRAVO!!! FINALLY!!!! An Archbishop with a spine. So good to see. Maybe his courage can be exported to Catholic Dioceses in other states. It’s needed badly!! Maybe they have finally realized the State is not interested in the general health of their citizens. They ARE interested in suppressing and eliminating the influence of the church TOTALLY. Finances are ruined, people are not returning to church, etc. I hope Kurtz sticks with his guns. The state is already destroying families with its orders that limit crowd size in private homes and most of all by making the population hysterical over covid, which has a better than 99% recovery rate. Hysterical enough that they dont want to see their own family members.The church is also a target, it could not be clearer.
People who have recovered from COVID 19 say “you must protect yourself from the virus”. The serious nature of this most debilitating virus is still not fully understood”. Scientists reveal that serious side effects from the virus may be life threatening with life long ailments.
Car crashes also cause life long “ailments,” but most people drive a car to Mass.
An absurd analogy. My Mother had to walk.
In point of fact, I had covid in April. At age 66 I am not young, but neither am I health compromised. In my case while I spent 2 weeks in bed feeling weak, I came nowhere near needing hospitalization and had no breathing difficulty. I am ( and have been throughout) unwilling to live what remains of my life in fear, hiding in a hole. That is not living to me. I welcome the idea of the vaccine. I have been distressed at the OTHER damage inflicted by the shut downs, which are now well known. People dying from addiction, abuse, suicide, other untreated maladies, mental illness, etc. There are varied physical reaction to this virus, depending upon the person. The media acts to stress hysteria, an unhelpful thing to do with a disease which has a better than 99% recovery rate. AS far as church is concerned, I think the Bishops in their rush to be helpful in fact did major damage to the church and their flocks.Those who are afraid should by all means avoid church. Those of us who wish to go, have a constitutional right to do so. Hopefully todays rebuke of Governor Cuomo of NY by the Supreme Court will put some perspective back into the issue for some of these power mad Governors.. personally it feels like a persecution of the church to me.
Well said lj and I agree with you 100%
Morgan,
Good morning to you! I hope you had a blessed Thanksgiving.
I think you bring up a good point. I know an elderly lady in our parish who has still not fully recovered from Covid. She has some kind of neurological damage months later after the infection.
If the virus actually was tweaked in a Chinese lab there could be some uniquely creepy side effects, but we really don’t know. And what are the longterm side effects of any potentially lethal virus on an elderly person?
The facts appear to show that the overwhelming number of people who catch Covid will have milder symptoms with it. As we grow older, we need to be more concerned about it. And there are a number of younger people with diabetes and other conditions who need to take care also. Thats especially true where I live.
But we can’t shut down the whole nation and cause deaths from other sources to continue to rise.Suicides and drug overdoses are at terrible levels right now.
Nor should restrictions be made on our religious freedom. At some point vulnerable people need to shelter and the rest get on with their business.
For the sake of everyone else morgan, please stay home and self-quarantine from the rest of society – including the internet – until there are absolutely no risks whatsoever in contracting a virus either outside or online.
Were you in the unmasked crowd in attendance at the Rose Garden super spreader unmasked Trump rally? Trump’s good example for anyone to follow. Your vitriolic response tells me YOU may be in need of quarantining. Wear a mask to keep others safe! And, don’t minimize the raw fact that there are more than 1,000 infections per day contributing to the number of 260,000+ innocent souls who have died! You could call that loss of life criminal. Stay safe.
Pullleeze, get a life.
Well said.
Will the new 5-4 Supreme Court decision suspending New York’s discriminatory covid treatment of religious services render all state discrimination void?
They need to keep pushing back at these restrictions and we need more Bishops to stand up for their sheep. The surge does not nor has not come from our Masses.
Given the disastrous spike in COVID 19 in the US and with the loss of life of over 260,000 souls my Catholic concern is caution. With the holidays upon us the potential for a pandemic explosion is very real. Scientists report that the COVID virus is out of control here. Our hospitals and staff are stretched beyond their ability to properly attend to other seriously ill patients, (heart attacks, strokes, cancer, etc). How can we dismiss their plight? It is interesting that our hierarchy call on us to protect all life. How can they say that ignorance of the hundreds of deaths is not sinful?
Archbishop Joseph E. Kurtz of Louisville, Ky…
“The Sunday obligation for Catholics to attend Mass, however, is still suspended in the state. Catholics do not have to attend Mass on Sunday if they think it is imprudent or unsafe to do so.” Jewish and Catholic services being cherished by all faithful parishioners. Their sacred duty should be carefully addressed.
President elect Biden says we should “heal our democracy. We are all in this together”.
Your post, as usual, is peppered with falsehoods and reflects irresponsible and uninformed fear-mongering. There is no explosion of cases, our hospitals are not stretched beyond capacity, and the deep ignorance of your post is sinful. And you are either profoundly ignorant or profoundly malevolent if you think Biden is going to unify the country.
That is actually not entirely true about hospitals not being over run. Depends on locale. A friend’s cousin works at a large hospital in an urban area. She is assigned double the patients because the administration refuses to hire more nurses–supposedly they cannot afford to hire more. The surgery floor is now a Covid floor–there are no surgeries (knee, hip replacements) because people are postponing them.
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Some areas are still delaying cancer treatments, or so people have claimed on FB.
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Covid is crowding out more lucrative procedures, but that seems to be all there exists right now. The medical profession has itself in a real pickle.
Ditto
Ignorance of reality? Me? Your vitriol sheds light on your intent to confuse. It is quite obvious that you hold no respect for the facts. Enlighten yourself!
Not-yet-and-by-God’s-grace-perhaps-never-to-be-President-elect Biden is perfectly fine with babies being butchered, so I don’t think he’s at all interested in saving human lives.
Also it would be easier to “heal” if he hadn’t spent the last considerable time calling half the country Nazis.
If we lived in a democracy instead of a Constitutional republic, mob rule would prevent you from posting nonsense on the internet, morgan.
Not sure what you point is? Are you supporting the Bishop, because you do point out that we are still dispensed at our own judgement. That is the best. If you don’t feel safe stay home. The arbitrary classification of essential businesses is not scientific to put it mildly. And as for your praise of the most pro abortion ticket in history bringing unity, you are delusional.
To Biden: “Physician, heal thyself.”
There have been 1825 COVID deaths in Kentucky; 36 yesterday (Nov. 25).
Attendees at mass should understand the risk to which they are exposing themselves and which the church is encouraging.
In our parish the demographic at mass tends toward the most at-risk groups.
Goodness, people in Kentucky must be more resilient than in our state. We’ve had close to 6,500 deaths attributed to Covid. We’re not closing down churches here.
Folks who have vulnerabilities due to age or chronic illness should protect themselves. Our parish broadcasts the Mass outside on a PA system and we can attend that way or inside the church. And receive Communion.
There are close to 5 MILLION people in Kentucky. Given that fact, while any death is sad, the deaths of less than 2000 people over almost a year cannot be used to justify the draconian disruption of human lives, the economy and our social order on so many levels. My bet would be they have lost more folks in that time to cancer or heart disease. In NY, when our churches were “allowed” to reopen, our pastor had duct tape put in places on the pews where people were not allowed to sit in order to social distance, and much sanitizing of hands is done before communion by the priest and the EMs. Our church can hold 800 people under ordinary seating situations. Its absurd to be limited to 10 people in a church that size. Our demographic, like most Catholic churches, also skews older. If you are not comfortable going to Mass, dont. Those people though, should have NO right to shut down religious services for others. That what we have a constitution for. How nice that at least 5 of our Supreme Court judges know that. As for the other 4 judges, I can only say , “pathetic”.
Bravo to Archbp. Kurtz.
Are we seeing the beginnings of a movement?
They do understand the risks, and as responsible adults they can take the necessary precautions. There is no justification for the government’s attempts to violate citizens’ first amendment rights to the free exercise of religion.
Many people actually say no such thing. I know several people who were mildly sick for a few days and then went on with their normal lives without any long term complications. More dishonesty and fear-mongering on your part. The science has clearly indicated that people with additional health issues are most vulnerable. They need to take precautions while the rest of us get back to living productive lives. Stop lecturing people morganb.
Note that this is a REQUEST. Granted that it does take some modicum of backbone to refuse to acquiesce to the request, but it is not the same thing as “disobeying” an unjust “law.”
What would have happened if it was an order? Would you have a few policemen show up during the service and command to disband? Then perhaps people would be unlawfully arrested if nothing happened? If this scenario played out, it would be justified for the congregation to violently resist unlawful arrest and assist those who were being put under unlawful arrest.
Recovery rate >99%.
If you are afraid…stay home. Caesar wants you to be afraid.
I will not live my life in fear. TYVM.