A quarter of Irish Gen Z will have no children, new report says

While current trends show that 1 in 4 young women today will remain childless, Iona Instituteʼs Breda OʼBrien said the huge question is “whether this will be by choice or circumstance.”

One in 4 members of Ireland’s Gen Z demographic are expected to be childless by age 45, according to a new report from Dublin’s Iona Institute, which promotes marriage, freedom of conscience, and religion in society.

Gen Z generally refers to people born between 1997 and 2012.

Drawing on cohort-level data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD), as well as using demographic modeling, the instituteʼs “Choice or Circumstance? Rising Childlessness in Ireland” report, released in May, charts a huge increase in the number of Irish women who are childless.

Among those born in the late 1950s, only 30.9% were childless by age 30, rising to 63.6% for those born in the early 1990s. This trend suggests 25% of women born in the late 1990s will be childless when they reach age 45.

Breda OʼBrien of the Iona Institute told EWTN News that “a huge question is whether this will be by choice or circumstance.”

“Much will be unplanned and forced by circumstance, such as the cost of living,” she said. “It’s worrying and weʼre sliding into it without too much discussion. Before the 1930s, we had similar rates of childlessness in Ireland, but that was because of extreme poverty, late marriage, and low marriage rates. Weʼre supposed to be in an era where women have every possible choice.”

She continued: “The choice to have children, which is fundamental, is being taken away from young women. Itʼs being painted as a kind of freedom. I donʼt think young women themselves consider it to be a type of freedom, and I think a lot of them are worried about it.”

According to Central Statistics Office data, the average man’s age at marriage is now nearing 38 and the average womanʼs age is almost 36.

A 2022 Amarach Research poll for Iona showed that 85% of people want to have at least two children and only 2% expressed a wish for no children.

Births in Ireland have fallen by almost 18% in the last decade, according to Central Statistics Office.

With clear indications that the longer a person delays having children, the less likely he or she will have any, O’Brien said “itʼs part of the whole growth of individualism and this idea for kids, from the time theyʼre tiny, [that] you get your education, you travel, you have your career in order, you have fun, you donʼt tie yourself down, and then sometimes in your 30s, you think about settling down. But a lot of women in their mid-30s realize that it is increasingly difficult to conceive.”

She added: “The fertility industry is booming, which does show us that people are willing to go to extraordinary lengths to have children, but the life script theyʼve been presented with is actually working against their best interests. Nature has no knowledge of this life script that young people are being presented with.”

“The longer you leave it, the more chances there are of miscarriage, of complications in labor, and of medical intervention during birth, if you get that far. So itʼs not consequence-free,” she said.

O’Brien told EWTN News that there needs to be debate about why this is happening as a society. “It is a phenomenon we should discuss far more widely if our aim is to help people achieve their eventual life goals. I think among people of faith, they are still prioritizing children and family, and marriage. The Catholic Church needs to support those young families in every way possible.”

She pointed out that having fewer children “has very significant social and economic consequences because of the effects of an aging population and growing loneliness.”

The report highlights a series of demographic issues related to childlessness and to Ireland’s already-aging population. Lower fertility rates, combined with rising childlessness, mean that the ratio of working-age adults to elderly dependents is set to worsen. Fewer births today mean fewer workers in 20 to 30 years.

O’Brien said: “In Ireland, thereʼs still a degree of respect for older people, but one of the awful possible consequences is that younger people will start to resent older people.”

The Iona report highlights the situation where a smaller working-age population will be asked to support a larger elderly population, putting pension sustainability, healthcare, and long-term care provision under growing financial pressure.

The instituteʼs findings also highlight the effect on housing and household-formation patterns. A rise in the proportion of adults who never have children increases demand for smaller dwellings and single-person households.

Additionally, in recent decades, inward migration to Ireland has been an effective and economically rational response in periods of strong demand. However, it is not a response to childlessness.

O’Brien pointed to other countries and the demographic shifts they are facing with an increasing aging population.

“Other countries are further along the road than we are. South Korea, or even Japan, where theyʼre repurposing childcare facilities for eldercare facilities, moving from baby formula to fortified drinks from the elderly, and from producing diapers for children, to producing incontinence products for the elderly — this is not a good road that weʼre on,” she said.