Jan 5, 2026 / 06:00 am (CNA).
Key elections in November 2026 could reshape the balance of power in the U.S. government, potentially upending the current Republican trifecta in Washington and offering a referendum on President Donald Trump’s second term in office.
Thirty-three seats in the U.S. Senate are up for election, while two states will hold special elections. All 435 districts of the U.S. House of Representatives, meanwhile, are holding elections.
Republicans presently control the White House and both chambers of Congress, but their majorities in both legislative chambers are narrow; Democrats need only a net gain of four seats to flip the Senate and a net of three districts to take control of the House.
As is often the case, many of the races are seen as foregone conclusions, with Republican and Democratic candidates in most states and districts comfortably assured of victory. Yet key toss-up races could end up shifting some control of the national government to Democrats.
Chief among them is the Senate race in Maine, where GOP Sen. Susan Collins is facing reelection in a state Trump lost by about 7 points in 2024.
Maine has voted strongly in favor of Democratic presidential candidates for many years — the last time a Republican president took the state was 1988 — and while Collins has easily won election or reelection five times there since 1996, this year’s race could present a more significant challenge for the Republican, due in part to Trump’s declining favorability ratings.
Collins, who identifies as Catholic, next year may find herself racing against state Gov. Janet Mills, who is currently vying for the state’s Democratic nomination. The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics switched Maine to a “toss-up” election in October, citing Collins’ middling approval numbers and Mills’ potential challenge.
The Center for Politics points to three other “toss-up” Senate elections in 2026, those of Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan.
In North Carolina, Republican Sen. Thom Tillis will not seek reelection, presenting an opportunity for Democrats to pick up another seat. Former state Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has declared his candidacy there, as has former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley.
A Democratic stronghold for years, the North Carolina state government has overall leaned more Republican since around 2010, though GOP presidential candidates have done well there for longer. Yet the state has overwhelmingly voted for Democratic governors for decades with few exceptions, and Trump’s vulnerability — polls show high levels of disapproval of the president there — could give Democrats a boost in a state they likely need to win to obtain control of the Senate.
House considered a toss-up; some states consider life, religion proposals
In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is expected to defend the seat he won in 2021, though he could be ousted in the primary election in May, when Republicans will also choose their candidate.
In Michigan, meanwhile, Democratic Sen. Gary Peters is retiring, leaving Democrats scrambling to elect a new candidate; no clear challenger has yet emerged in either party there, with a primary election set for Aug. 4.
Though Michigan hasn’t elected a Republican senator in about 25 years, the state’s critical role in national elections will likely render it a competitive race into November. Trump beat Kamala Harris for the state’s electors by just over 1% in 2024; he lost that state to Joe Biden in 2020 by about 3%.
Analysts, meanwhile, say the U.S. House is a potential flip for Democrats. The Center for Politics projects a tentative 211-208 Democratic majority there.
Outgoing Democratic Rep. Nancy Pelosi, meanwhile, predicted last week that Democrats would “win the House back” in November, declaring that Republican control of Congress will be “over” in 2027.
Amid the candidate elections, voters in some states will consider numerous ballot issues that could also offer referendums on Republican governance and Trump’s second term.
Some states are considering ballot initiatives related to abortion. Missouri voters will decide whether or not to enact sweeping restrictions on abortion in the state, while Nevada voters may amend the state’s constitution to create a right to an abortion there.
The Missouri measure, if passed, would also prohibit doctors from performing “gender transition” procedures on underage children. Abortion-related proposals may also appear on the ballots in Virginia, Idaho, and Oregon.
Some states may also consider religion-related ballot proposals. In West Virginia, voters in 2026 may consider a measure that would amend the state constitution to allow churches and religious denominations to incorporate under state law.
A potential proposal in Wisconsin, meanwhile, would prohibit the government from closing churches in response to public health emergencies and other crises.
Ahead of the midterms, Milwaukee Archbishop Jeffrey Grob last week lamented that politics in the United States has become “so polarized” and warned Catholics not to “get caught in camps” that amplify political differences.
“Bishops, priests, deacons, church leaders that are not Catholic, other leaders — it’s easy to get drawn into one camp or another camp, whatever the case may be,” the prelate told WISN-TV.
“We have to remain true to ourselves,” he said, “and it’s not to a particular party, but it is to our Catholic faith.”
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CNA now does political analysis? I think CNA ought to stop referring to itself as “Catholic” and honestly say who they are: an arm of the DNC.
Mostly agree, you cannot serve two masters. I don’t believe CNA is that close to the DNC but politics first for Catholics of either party is a mistake. We had a Mr. Pro Life, “hard core” supposedly Catholic who came out in favor of abortion in several circumstances because Trump did, now publicly announces the Church is wrong about divorce because his idol (literally) Trump is divorced, and says the Church is wrong about contraception because it keeps down the number of children from unwanted groups. I find Catholics who place their Political Parties at the head of their lives – whatever the Party, turn out to be some pretty convienient catholics for whom politics is their true belief system.
I think the idea that contraception reduces “unwanted groups” is something that’s been shared by people on both sides of the political aisle. Sadly.