With the caveat that the human
future is very hard to predict, much harder than, for example, the weather, I
wish to make the following predictionthat the future of the national
Democratic Party will be very bleak for a long, long time.
This is a matter of personal
concern to me, since I was once a fairly prominent Democrat in my little state
of Rhode Island. I was a Democratic state senator for 12 years, two of
those years as Senate majority leader; and in 1992 I was the Democratic
candidate for the United States House of Representatives in my congressional
district. (Alas, I was defeated“trounced” would be a more accurate termby
the incumbent, a pro-choice Republican.) For reasons of nostalgia, then,
if for no other reason, I hate to see the party go downhill; but I’m afraid
that’s what it’s doing and will continue to do for the indefinite future.
The cause of this decline has a lot to do with religionor rather,
irreligion. The national Democratic Party, I regret to say, has become
America’s anti-Christianity party: the party of secularism and of what lies at
the root of secularism, atheism. To justify this assertion, let me give a
brief account of Democratic demography. There are six main constituent
groups that make up today’s Democratic Party (each of these groups, I should
note, overlaps with some of the others). One of these groups, the most
important of the six, is atheistic and anti-Christian. A second group,
while being nominally Christian, collaborates with the first group. The
other four are not anti-Christian; if anything, they are pro-Christian. Over
the long-run it will prove impossible, I contend, to hold this coalition of strange
bedfellows together.
Family-heritage Democrats: These are
people who are Democrats because they grew up in traditionally Democratic
families. If they are white Southerners, this family tradition usually
goes back more than a century, either to the period just after the Civil War or
even to the era prior to the war. If they are whites outside the South,
the Democratic family tradition may go back to the time their ancestors came to
American from Europe, e.g., from Ireland or Italy or Russia; this may have been
a century or a century-and-a-half ago. These Democrats are quite
non-ideological; it’s just that being anything other than a Democrat would seem
“unnatural” to them, and it would seem like a betrayal of their parents and
grandparents and great-grandparents. Besides, many have genuine personal
admiration for Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, and John Kennedy.
African-Americans: Of all Democratic
constituency groups, none is more habituatedor perhaps I should say addictedto
voting Democratic than blacks. In a presidential election, about 90
percent of them routinely vote in favor of the Democratic candidate; and in the
2008 presidential election, when the Democratic candidate was himself a black
man, 95 percent of them voted for him. They too are non-ideological. For
many decades following the Civil War blacks (I mean those blacks who actually
got to exercise their right to vote) were reliably Republican voters, and
understandably so. After all, it was Lincoln and his party who won the war and
abolished slavery; further, the Democratic Party in the South was a white
supremacy party, while the Democratic Party outside the South, though only
moderately racist itself, had few if any objections to the racism of the
Southern wing of the party.
But this began to change with the
Great Depression and the coming of Franklin Roosevelt and his New
Deal. FDR was seen as the champion of poor people, and blacks were certainly
poor; Mrs. Roosevelt was seen as positively pro-black (remember the Marian
Anderson incident). President Truman racially integrated the armed forces,
and at the 1948 Democratic National Convention, the party voted to adopt a
civil rights plank (thus causing a walkout by the “Dixiecrat” section of the
party). In the mid-1960s President Lyndon Johnson embraced the aims of the
civil rights movement by effecting passage of the Civil Rights Act (1964) and
the Voting Rights Act (1965). All this may have caused a great defection
from the party among Southern whites, but it guaranteed the future loyalty of
African-Americans in every section of the country.
Hispanics: They are not nearly as
solidly Democratic as blacks, but Hispanics are nonetheless strongly Democratic. In
the presidential election of 2008, roughly two-thirds of them voted for Barack
Obama. Some wishful-thinking liberal Democrats like to group Hispanics, blacks,
and a few other non-white groups together, calling the whole group “persons of
color” in the hope that this non-white bloc, while remaining strongly
Democratic, will eventually (about the year 2050) become the majority of the
American population; in the meantime these wishful-thinkers like to imagine
that this non-white bloc will allow itself to be politically led by liberal
whites.
All this is very
unlikely. Hispanics and blacks are culturally different from one another. Hispanic
immigrants to the United States are less like blacks than they are like 19th
and early 20th century European immigrants to the United States. In a
country which has been, ever since the great work of Martin Luther King,
essentially non-racist, it is highly unlikely that anybody can build a
political coalition on the basis of being anti-white. Eventually, as Hispanics
prosper, become better educated, and move up the socio-economic ladder, they
will probably increasingly vote Republican. Hispanics, like the two groups
discussed previously, are non-ideological. Their aim is to make a living
and to get ahead in America, not to implement a philosophical vision.
Organized labor: Labor unions are
still an important force in the Democratic Party, but five things should be
noted about them. (1) Blue-collar unions, which once, in the early 1960s,
represented about one-third of the American labor force, now represent less
than 10 percent, a percentage that shrinks every year. (2) Today organized
labor’s center of gravity is to be found in the public employee unionsunions
made up of teachers (I myself belong to one of these unions, the National
Education Association), police officers, fire fighters, and other municipal,
county, state, and federal employees; these people are more likely to be
lower-middle class than working class. (3) While most union members
probably follow the advice of their leaders to vote the Democratic ticket, they
don’t do so in an overwhelming way. Far from it. (4) The three great
creative eras of American unionism have long since endedthe era of the craft
unions (the Samuel Gompers era), the era of the industrial unions (the John L.
Lewis era), and the era of the public employee unions (the Albert Shanker
era). The creators have been replaced by bureaucrats, who are long on
intelligence and hard work, but short on creative imagination and moral
commitment. (5) Organized labor is somewhat ideological, but only barely
so. It still pays lip-service to certain old semi-socialist ideas, but it
does so without enthusiasm and with hardly any conviction.
Secularists: When I speak of
secularists I have in mind people who are not just nonreligious but positively
anti-religious, and especially anti-Christianity. They feel that
Christianity is morally and intellectually harmful both to individuals and to
society at large. America, they believe, would be a much better society if
it could become a much less Christian society. And so, motivated at least
in part by a concern for what they conceive to be the common good, they work to
undermine or destroy Christianity in the United States. Normally secularists
are either atheists or agnostics and, if agnostic, that kind of agnostic who is
virtually an atheist. I mean by this the agnostic who, though unwilling to
make a definite assertion that God is nonexistent, feels that the chances of
God’s existence are no better than one in a thousand (or one in a million); and
therefore it makes sense to base one’s life on the premise that God does not
exist.
As participants in politics
secularists believe in many things, but these three are at the present day
their most important beliefs: (1) They hold that there is a fundamental human
right to abortion; that taxpayer money should be used to pay for abortions,
especially for poor women; and that the government of the United States should
work to promote abortion globally. (2) They also believe that
homosexuality is, for some persons, perfectly natural and hence morally
permissible; that there is a fundamental human right to marry a person of one’s
own gender; that this right is implicit in the United States Constitution, and
that a sane and sensible Supreme Court would recognize this right; and that
persons or institutions (e.g., churches) who believe that homosexual conduct is
immoral and that same-sex marriage should not be legally permitted are
homophobic bigots. (3) They believe in what we may call the “omnicompetent
state.” (This belief probably arises as a psychological substitute for
their disbelief in an all-powerful God.) That is, they hold that for every
social problem there is a solution that can be brought about by the action of
the federal government.
This is not to say, however, that
they believe that a federal agency is the appropriate tool for solving all
these problems. Sometimes such an agency will be the right tool; but often
the right tool will be a non-federal agent stimulated or induced to act by the
federal governmentfor example, state and local governments, private
businesses, colleges and universities, other nonprofit institutions, or
international organizations, either permanent organizations (such as the United
Nations and its agencies) or ad hoc organizations set up to deal with this or
that particular crisis. Thus it is the duty of the omnicompetent federal
government to solve such problems as poverty, racism, sexism, under-achievement
in math and science, AIDS, and global warming, to name just a few.
About 40 years ago the influence
of secularists in the Democratic Party began to expand rapidly; now they are
not only an important section of the party but probably the single most
important section. They are the “mind” of the party, its intellectual
leaders. They serve this function in two principal ways: first, by
creating almost all new Democratic ideas; and second, by distributing these
ideas through the “command posts” of American culture, which tend to be
dominated by secularists: I refer to the mainstream national news media, the
entertainment industry, and the nation’s elite colleges and universities
(including law schools).
Secularism is chiefly an upper-middle-class
phenomenon. That is to say, it is found almost exclusively among people
who are either already upper-middle-class or have reasonable aspirations to
become upper-middle-class. These people have fine educations, good jobs,
and high incomes; and they have lifestyles suited to their levels of education,
employment, and income, live in good neighborhoods, eat good food, drink good
wine and beer and coffee, and have good taste when it comes to music, recent
books, and the fine arts generally. Not all upper-middle-class people, it
must be noted, are secularists, but the great majority of secularists are upper-middle-class.
Quasi-secularists: When I speak of a
“quasi-secularist” I mean a theologically liberal Christian. Negatively
defined, a liberal Christian is one who rejects the dogmatic principle in
religion. When it comes to religion the liberal Christian “thinks for
himself,” he doesn’t follow the voice of authority, neither the authority of
the Bible nor the authority of the Church.
Until about 40 or 50 years ago
liberal Christianity was a Protestant monopoly, but since the time of Vatican
II there has been a tremendous explosion of liberal Christianity among
Catholics. Positively defined, the liberal Christian, being very modern
and up-to-date, takes manyperhaps even mostof his beliefs and values from
secularists. He is a “fellow traveler” of secularism. Liberal
Christians are related to outright secularists much the way “pink”
fellow-travelers were related to “red” Communists in the 1930s and
40s. The Reds had the ideas; while the Pinks, though reluctant to go all
the way and become Reds themselves, admired many of these ideas, and supported
them with numbers and respectability. Liberal Christianity, then, is an
incoherent attempt to blend the unblendable, an attempt to merge Christianity
with anti-Christianity. And thus we see liberal Christians
(quasi-secularists) approving, in the name of Jesus Christ, such things as
abortion rights, same-sex marriage, and the doings of the omnicompetent state.
Can a strange-bedfellows coalition of this kind be kept together over the long
run, a political coalition in which the “mind” is atheistic and anti-Christian
while the “body”that is, blacks, Hispanics, family-heritage Democrats, and
most labor union membersis the opposite? Of course not. Sooner or
later, as the body becomes aware of where the mind is leading it, members of
the body will defect, becoming either Republicans or political
independents.
Among family-heritage Democrats this process of
defection has been underway for a long time. Among blacks and Hispanics,
the two American demographic groups least inclined to atheism and
anti-Christianity, the defection hasn’t happened yet, except in very small
numbers, but is bound to take place eventually. Even in the course of
decline, Democrats will of course win elections from time to time (as they did
in 2008). But if the party, while keeping the same “mind” that it has
today, is ever to flourish again, it will have to convert America either to
atheism or to a near-atheistic version of liberal Christianity. Such a
conversion is of course possible, but I doubt it will happen.