Pew report: U.S. adults in their 20s and 30s plan to have fewer than 2 children

 

Washington, D.C. Newsroom, Jun 20, 2025 / 17:51 pm (CNA).

American adults in their 20s and 30s plan to have fewer children than adults did a decade ago, a new Pew Research Center report finds.

From 2002 to 2012, men and women ages 20 to 39 reported that they planned to have an average of 2.3 children. In 2023, the number of children adults reported they wanted decreased to an average of 1.8, according to Pew Research analysis of government data.

Pew looked at data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, specifically from the National Survey of Family Growth, which “gathers information on pregnancy and births, marriage and cohabitation, infertility, use of contraception, family life, and general and reproductive health.”

Pew reported that the total number of children included kids the respondents already had, plus any future children they planned to have. Women were asked how many “live births they have had” and men were asked how many children they have “ever fathered.” Adopted children were not included in the study numbers, but children placed for adoption were.

Differences based on gender and education

In 2023, the total number of children that men and women ages 20 to 39 planned to have fell below 2.1, which is “about the average number of children, per woman, that a population needs to replace itself over time,” according to Pew.

In 2002, the average number of children women planned to have was 2.3 and for men, it was 2.2. These numbers remained mostly stable for the next 10 years until 2012, when they began to decline.

The exact change in numbers varied depending on the age of the adults. In 2012, women ages 20 to 24 reported they planned to have an average of 2.3 children, but in 2023 the number fell to 1.5. For women ages 25 to 29 the amount of children they wanted declined from 2.3 to 1.9. For women ages 30 to 34, the number declined to 1.9 from 2.5.

The study found that there was not a significant drop for women ages 35 to 39. Among the men surveyed, the declines were similar across all age groups.

The research also found that education levels may affect how many children women age 25 to 39 intend to have. There was less of a decline in the number of children women who had “some college or less” planned to have than among women who had a bachelor’s degree or higher.

In 2002, women with some college experience planned, on average, to have 2.4 children, which only fell to 2.2 in 2023. In 2002, women with a bachelor’s degree or higher education planned to have an average of 2.1 children, but this number declined to 1.7 in 2023.

For women 30 to 34, the decline occurred almost entirely among those with a bachelor’s degree. In 2023, women in this age group with at least a bachelor’s degree planned to have 1.5 children. The number for that group was 2.1 in 2002. Those without a bachelor’s experienced almost no change.

Pew’s analysis did not find a significant difference by education among men ages 25 to 39.

Decline in number of adults who plan to have at least 1 child

The analysis found the number of adults in their 20s and 30s who have, or intend to have, at least one child also declined.

In 2012, 9 in 10 men and women reported that they planned to have at least one child. But, in 2023, this declined to 76% of men and 77% of women. The decline was primarily among young women ages 20 to 24.

In 2002, a strong majority (94%) of this group planned to have at least one child, and this remained mostly stable until 2012 with only a small shift to 93%. But by 2023, this number had declined to 66%.

Men ages 20 to 24 experienced a decline from 89% in 2012 to 75% in 2023.

Impact of lower birth rates

In 2024, Pew asked Americans about the impact of lower birth rates on the country and how effective they thought certain federal policies would be at encouraging more people to have children.

Pew reported that 47% of U.S. adults said fewer people choosing to have children would have a negative impact on the country, 20% said it would have a positive impact, and 31% said it would have neither a positive nor a negative impact.

When asked about what policies would be “extremely or very effective” at increasing birth rates, 60% of adults said providing free child care, 51% said requiring paid family leave, 49% said providing more tax credits for parents, and 45% said giving parents of minor children a monthly payment.