“What is happening to Christianity in Nigeria is incomprehensible.”

A prominent Nigerian Catholic researcher and criminologist has issued a stark warning: Christianity could disappear from Nigeria within the next 50 years if the persecution of Christians continues and an agenda of Islamization succeeds.

Emeka Umeagbalasi, Director of the Catholic-inspired International Society for Civil Liberties and the Rule of Law (Intersociety), made these remarks following a recent attack on the Immaculate Conception Minor Seminary in Ivhianokpodi village, within the Auchi Diocese in Edo State.

Deadly attack, kidnapping at seminary

Armed assailants had stormed the seminary on July 10, shortly after 9:00 PM, killing a security guard and kidnapping three seminarians, according to a diocesan statement signed by communications director Father Peter Egielewa.

The remaining seminarians were relocated to “a safe area” while security around the seminary was enhanced, Father Egielewa stated. He added that, unfortunately, “no communication has been had with the abductors yet.”

Police investigating the kidnapping condemned the incident as a “senseless act of violence against a religious institution and innocent young students,” describing it as “not only barbaric, but also a direct attack on public peace and security.”

Bishop Gabriel Ghiakhomo Dunia, speaking from the United States, where he learned of the abduction, urged parents of the kidnapped seminarians to remain calm and not be “crushed by fear, threats, or intimidation.”

He emphasized the broader threat, noting, “These things are not happening only at the Seminary. Some seminarians have even been kidnapped from their homes while on holiday. We must remain vigilant and do all we can to protect them.”

Bishop Dunia extended his “deepest condolences to the family of the gallant officer who was killed.” He expressed surprise that the attack occurred despite enhanced security measures put in place after a previous kidnapping at the same seminary on October 27, 2023. On that occasion, the seminary rector, Father Thomas Oyode, offered himself as a hostage in place of two young seminarians and was released after 11 days.

Bishop Dunia placed the blame for the latest kidnapping squarely on the security forces, stating their failure in duty led to the incident.

The latest attack is just one of several recent deadly incidents. Residents of the largely Christian Bindi village in Plateau state woke up at 3:00 in the morning on July 15 to the deafening sound of gunfire as Jihadist Fulani herdsmen struck their village. 27 villagers were killed, many of them burnt alive in their beds.

The killing of Christians has become a daily routine in a country nearly evenly divided between Christians and Muslims.

“What is happening to Christianity in Nigeria is incomprehensible. It’s very, very shocking. And there seems to be no solution,” said Umeagbalasi.

Pinpointing exact figures for Christians killed and kidnapped in Nigeria is challenging due to a lack of centralized data, the complexity of the violence, and widespread underreporting. However, reports from reputable organizations paint a grim picture: since 2009, at least 60,000 Christians are estimated to have been killed.

Open Doors’ World Watch List reports over 13,000 Christians killed for their faith in Nigeria between 2015 and 2023, alongside 12,000 kidnappings. ACLED data suggests an even higher toll, placing the number killed within the same period (2015-2023) at over 50,000.

Intersociety, in a February 2024 report, stated that Nigeria has become “the second deadliest Genocide-Country in the world,” accounting for over 150,000 religiously motivated civilian deaths since 2009. This toll is surpassed only by Syria’s civil war casualties (306,000).

Beyond fatalities, the violence has had a devastating impact: Intersociety’s report also details 18,500 church attacks, 1,100 Christian communities sacked, and over 15 million Christians displaced from their homes since 2009. Additionally, 2,200 Christian schools were destroyed, and approximately 34,000 moderate Muslims also died in Islamist attacks during this period.

A BBC investigation highlights that Nigeria is the epicenter of anti-Christian violence globally, accounting for an estimated 90% of the 9,000 Christians killed for their faith worldwide each year.

A plan to Islamize Nigeria

Umeagbalasi told CWR that, contrary to the generally held narrative that attacks on Christian communities are driven by economic factors, particularly the struggle over land, there is a sinister intent by authorities in Nigeria to Islamize the country.

It started with Boko Haram in 2009, but when Buhari came to power, he elevated the Islamization agenda to state policy, according to the Nigerian criminologist.

“It’s pure religious persecution,” Umeagbalasi said. “If it isn’t the persecution of Christians, tell me how many Emiratis have been killed, how many mosques have been destroyed, how many farmlands belonging to Muslims have been destroyed.”

He accused Nigeria’s former leader, Mohamadu Buhari (who died last week, on July 13th) of recruiting and arming foreign jihadists to unleash the violence Christians are facing today. He said Fulani herdsmen and Fulani bandits are also operating with the complicity of the government of Nigeria.

“Retired Major General Muhammadu Buhari, upon becoming President, did not govern Nigeria with a multicultural, pluralistic, or multireligious vision. Instead, his goal was to Islamize the nation “by hook or crook.” He established agents, brought in external enemies, and recruited ineffective leaders specifically tasked with Islamizing eastern Nigeria, particularly the southeast,” said Umeagbalasi.

He stated that the Buhari administration facilitated the entry of various militias, including the Nasarawa Dokubo Islamist Conquest Volunteer Force, the Mujahideen, jihadist Fulani herdsmen, and other jihadists whose presence was enabled by open Nigerian borders starting in 2017.

“Furthermore, in 2016, the administration was accused of radicalizing the Nigerian security forces, including the police and the State Security Service (SSS), along Islamic lines.”

He pointed out that the Islamization agenda hasn’t changed under Bola Tinubu and noted that the “persecution of Christians is getting worse because it has become an integral project of the federal government.”

Lozano added that in the northern part of the country, where states are governed under Islamic law (Sharia), “Christians face structural discrimination: difficulties building churches, accessing certain rights, or obtaining public positions.

“While this doesn’t always translate into direct violence, it creates a permanent atmosphere of hostility,” she told CWR.

“What is most worrying is that, in many cases, the perpetrators act with total impunity. The violence is reaching levels that border on barbarity: villages razed, entire families murdered, seminarians targeted and kidnapped,” she said.

A chilling effect on evangelism

Umeagbalasi told CWR that the continued attacks on Christians have a chilling effect on evangelism, despite the resilience of Nigeria’s Christians.

“No one—be they a bishop, seminarian, priest, or pastor—wants to be killed,” he said.

“Yet those perpetrating these senseless killings believe that by eliminating the messenger, they can destroy the message. This belief underpins their actions, and it is a threat that should alarm us all. We did not train priests for martyrdom in this way. We did not ordain seminarians for this fate. We did not consecrate bishops for this end. And we did not call our laypeople to be victims of such violence,” he told CWR.

“Losing an innocent soul is a serious threat to the security and safety of others elsewhere. So it is already psychologically affecting the evangelism and gospel,” he added, and explained that in Northern Nigeria, particularly in the hinterlands, “you dare not profess Christianity. The intent of these murderers is to inflict fear on members of the Christian Faith.”

“If care is not taken in the next 50 years, by 2075, there will be no Christianity in Nigeria,” Umeagbalasi warned.

But Maria Lozano of Aid to the Church in Need notes that despite the persecution, ‘faith has not disappeared” from Nigeria, but “it is a faith that cries out.”

“Like in the Psalms, it is a faith made of lament, of unanswered questions, of a soul that does not understand, but still clings to God. It is a wounded faith, yes, but also a living one. People hold on to the Rosary, to the Eucharist, to the community — because they know that in God lies their only hope,” Lozano told CWR.

She underscored the need for Nigeria’s Christians to receive needed help in their time of need.

“Even a faith that cries out needs to be supported,” she said. “At Aid to the Church in Need, we believe our mission is not only material but profoundly spiritual: to remind them that they are not alone, that their cry is heard, and that the universal Church is with them — even in their darkest hour.”